John McCain has pulled 5 points ahead of Barack Obama in the latest national Zogby presidential poll, which last month showed Obama ahead by 7 points. The poll shows Obama losing support across nearly all demographic groups, with a significant decline in support among young voters.
Zogby polled 1,089 likely voters, and the poll has a 3-point margin of error. Respondents were called last Thursday through Saturday, so the results do not include much, if any, fallout from Obama’s embarrassing performance at the Saddleback Civil Forum on Presidency last Saturday night.
The Zogby poll release follows McCain having taken the advantage over Obama in projections of the Electoral Vote for the first time yesterday.
The dip in support for Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, cut across demographic and ideological lines. He slipped among Catholics, born-again Christians, women, independents and younger voters. He retained the support of more than 90 percent of black voters.
“There were no wild swings, there isn’t one group that is radically different than last month or even two months ago. It was just a steady decline for Obama across the board,” Zogby said.
Obama’s support among voters between the ages of 18 and 29, which had been one of his strengths, slipped 12 percentage points to 52 percent. McCain, who will turn 72 next week, was winning 40 percent of younger voters.
How this will effect the Democrat nomination process is unclear, although it seems fairly certain that a beaten-up and bruised Barack Obama will have a less triumphant convention than if he was strongly ahead at this time.
This opens the door for Hillary Clinton to try to steal the nomination away from Obama. Given the disorganized way the Democrat primary was run, it seems fairly certain that the Democrat convention will be in quite a bit of disarray as it becomes more clear that Obama is not the lock in November they thought he was.
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