Dan Hirschhorn at PA2010 points to some more detailed data about the questionable poll on the PA-8 Congressional race commissioned by the SEIU and far-left VoteVets.org, claiming that the data show the poll’s results are “more than kosher.”
Now I’m not sure what “more than kosher” is, but if this poll is an example of “more than kosher” polling, I think I’ll pass on it. What Hirschhorn finds “more than kosher” is actually pretty much the textbook definition of “push polling.”
I’m not sure if Dan actually read the information he linked to or if he feels he has an interest in going to bat for this poll because he originally published the results as fact, but doubling down on what is obviously a push-poll even after reading the questions and methodology is incredibly odd.
First, no reputable public opinion poll works from a sample culled from a voter list. None. Reputable public opinion polls work from totally random sample.
Second, no reputable public opinion poll gives biased takes, either favorable or unfavorable, on a candidate’s position on issues and then asks a respondent how troubling or convincing it is. None.
Third, no reputable public opinion poll just accepts that they wound up with a respondent group that doesn’t accurately reflect the makeup of the target group and then uses that flaw to convince you the poll’s results are even more extra-special great news for a candidate (“if anything this survey skews a bit more conservative than the overall electorate.”). In my polling days, we would continue calling for days just to get that one married female between the ages of 30 and 40 who made under $50,000 a year and lived in a specific ZIP code that we needed to make our results accurately reflect the community because that’s what you do to get accurate polling results.
Fourth, common sense. 14 point leads don’t turn into 5 point deficits in 5 days unless a candidate is found screwing an under-aged boy in the back seat of his limo and beating a dog with an aborted baby while doing blow off a hooker’s back.
19-point swing in five days? “It’s legit!”
Here’s how the push-poll works:
The pollster reads from a list of reasons you should vote for Patrick Murphy and asks you to rank them in order of their importance. No reasons you should vote for Fitzpatrick are presented.
Then the pollster reads from a very short list of Murphy criticisms (each respondent hears only two) and asks you to rank how troubling each is. This is the dupe question, to assure voters that this is an actual poll and not a campaign call.
Then the pollster reads from a laundry list of Fitzpatrick criticisms, asking the voter to rank how troubling the respondent finds it. EACH VOTER HEARS 11 OF THESE.
Here are some “more than kosher” takes on Fitzpatrick’s positions which “aren’t designed to sway respondents one way or another”:
Fitzpatrick wants to do away with
Social Security as we know it. He’d
privatize Social Security and risk our
retirement benefits in the stock market.
Many people already lost their individual
retirement savings because of the stock
market – now Fitzpatrick wants to risk
the only guaranteed retirement benefit
that we have left
Even though we
must stop the outsourcing of American
jobs overseas, Fitzpatrick REFUSES to
end the unfair special tax breaks for big
corporations who out-source our jobs
and hide their profits in secret offshore
After the laundry list of Fitzpatrick criticisms, the voter is asked “thinking about everything we’ve discussed” who they would vote for.
What’s sad, even considering this, Murphy can only pull a 5% lead among likely voters.
Dan declares: “It’s legit!”
You were duped into publishing the results of a push-poll as fact, Dan. Cut your losses.
Like That? You'll Probably Like These.
- OUSTING MURPHY: Poll Shows Fitzpatrick Ahead By 7%
- SEIU Push Poll Can Only Put Murphy Up Slightly
- Fitzpatrick Bests Murphy By 10% In Latest Poll
- Franklin & Marshall College Poll: Fitzpatrick Leads Murphy By 14%
- Larry Sabato Changes PA-8 To “Leans Republican”
TaggedMike Fitzpatrick, PA-8, Patrick Murphy, Pennsylvania's Eighth Congressional District, Polling Data
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