Barack Obama’s poll collapse is so severe that formerly true-blue states like New York, New Jersey, Washington and Pennsylvania are suddenly within reach for John McCain according to a spate of recent polls.
Yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showing Pennsylvania as a literal (as opposed to statistical) tie follows other polls showing an Obama lead that was well within the margin of error. As recently as July, the same polls using the same methodology (Quinnipiac and Strategic Vision) showed Obama with a 7-9% percent lead in the Commonwealth, and Rasmussen showed a 6% lead for Obama.
Quinnipiac’s New Jersey poll, the results of which were released today, show Obama leading McCain by 3%, just outside the poll’s 2.8% margin of error. The same poll showed Obama with a 10% lead in the Garden State just a month earlier. New Jersey’s “Independent” voters choose McCain by a 4% margin (47% compared to Obama’s 43%).
News for Obama doesn’t get any better coming out of the Empire State. A Siena Research Institute (Siena College) poll released yesterday shows Obama with a razor-thin 5% margin over McCain in New York, where a month ago polls showed McCain trailing Obama by as much as 21%. The Siena poll has a 3.9% margin of error. This same Siena College poll showed Obama leading McCain by 18 points in June.
Obama’s lead in Washington state has slipped from 16% in mid-July to 2% today, putting another formerly solid blue state into play.
Taken in conjunction with polls showing McCain ahead in the former battleground states of Ohio and Florida and even ceding that Iowa will turn from red to blue, there is exactly no way for Obama to win this election if any one of these four sudden battleground states flips from blue to red.
Pollster.com breaks it down (my emphasis).
Among the strong Republican states, McCain has gained more than 8 points over Obama since shortly before the conventions, turning a 14 point lead into a 22.5 point margin, a huge gain.Among the strong Democratic states, the effect of the conventions is a tiny 2 point move in McCain’s direction, from an Obama lead of 12 points before to 10 points now.But the rest of the states, rated lean or toss up, have also shown movement. These swing states had a 1.5 point Obama lead before the conventions, and that has now turned into a 3 point McCain lead, a 4.5 point shift.
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