Gallup has courted a lot of controversy this year in reporting their Congressional Generic Ballot numbers. One week, the GOP will be leading by 10 points, followed by a week when the Democrats pull within to a point or two of a tie, followed by a week when the GOP will pull to a 5 point lead again.
One reason for this has been that Gallup has reporting their results based on “Registered Voters” rather than the more predictive pool of “Likely Voters,” negating the effects of the massive enthusiasm gap that’s benefiting GOP candidates and, as a result, not really reporting the race as it is.
Gallup released their first Generic Ballot based on “Likely Voter” results Monday. The GOP holds a massive, nearly insurmountable, 18 point lead over the Democratic Socialist Party.
Gallup’s first generic ballot estimate of likely voters showed Republicans leading Democrats 53-40 percent in a high turnout scenario and 56-38 percent in a low turnout scenario.
Over the last few weeks, Gallup’s generic ballot polls of registered voters have shown both parties statistically tied. But the more narrow group of voters likely to cast ballots on Election Day in November shows the GOP with a bigger edge.
The poll’s results expose the massive lie the Democrats have been telling in hopes of self-fulfilling prophecy: That Democrat voters are getting engaged in the upcoming election.
The poll comes one day after the White House claimed Democrats have been making up ground on Republicans in voter enthusiasm. President Obama appeared at two large rallies with young voters this week and Democrats had pointed to the narrowing gap in the generic ballot poll of registered voters.
Of course, we don’t really need polls to tell us what’s going on when things like Patrick Murphy’s Chief of Staff leaving his cushy job to take a temporary job running Rahm Emanuel’s campaign for Mayor of Chicago happen.
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