Here it is, my final (until I change my mind) projection of the outcome of the 2008 Election. It’s based on polls, on watching the bias in polls, on Obama’s historical over-polling before actual votes are cast, on cursory knowledge of historical turn out ratios, and on a whole lot of gut.
If there is breaking news on Election Day, this will be updated to reflect it.
I believe Obama’s disdain for Ohio and Pennsylvania bitter clinging voters puts both states into McCain’s column. Between Rendell and Murtha calling Pennsylvanians racists, Brunner calling eastern Ohio residents racists, Obama’s San Francisco comments about bitter clingers in the region, and Obama’s plan to bankrupt the coal industry, I can’t see the electorate in either state being so bone-headed as to vote for people that so clearly despise them against their own interests.
I believe that Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia are McCain losses while McCain picks up New Hampshire.
I believe the loss of the three western states will be the result of a final act of media bias this election season: Incorrectly calling the election early for Barack Obama based on faulty exit polls. I believe they will incorrectly call either PA, OH, FL or NC as Obama wins based on these exit polls (either explicitly or through “analysis”) and have to retract their call. By that time it will be too late, and sufficient numbers of voters out west will have stayed home because of it.
Minnesota may also be a surprise win for McCain.
State I am least comfortable calling in Obama’s column: Virginia. George “Macaca” Allen only lost his Senate race there by .39% in 2006 when the climate was horrible for Republicans and Republicans were apathetic. We are decidedly not apathetic this time around.
State I am least comfortable calling in McCain’s column: New Hampshire.
Easiest call of the night: Murtha is out of Congress and on to a career of defending himself against defamation charges.
I believe the popular vote will go to Obama by the slimmest of slim margins because of pretty large majorities in NY, IL and CA.
As for the turnout disparity between Republicans and Democrats, which some pollsters have put as high as +12% Democrat when publishing their outlandish polls, it will be no more than 4% - probably 2%-3% - when all is said and done. The Democrats having nominated a socialist income redistributor with no experience and questionable radical associations, as well as rampant media bias (especially that which was directed against a wildly popular Vice Presidential nominee), assures high Republican turnout.
The GOP will be decimated in the House of Representatives, but retain at least 41 seats in the Senate and not grant the Democrats a filibuster-proof majority there.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it (as far as you know).
Like That? You'll Probably Like These.
- Not So Fast: Obama Internal Polls Show PA In Play
- Gallup: No Uptick In New Voters
- Obamapalooza Gives McCain Poll Bounce
- AP/Yahoo Needs To Poll 57% Democrats To Give Obama 2 Point Lead
- Polls Are Useless, Race Is Where You Want It To Be
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Barack Hussein Obama, John McCain, Presidential Polling2 Responses to “Electoral Projection”
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1edit35 on Nov 4, 2008 at 1:35 am:
One encouraging antedoctal sign I saw this evening was a few people standing at a makeshift McCain for President rally at Five Points, in Levittown.
Some guy had built a scaffolding and put up a 15-foot high American flag surrounded by McCain campaign signs….\
He and another guy were standing on the island in the middle of traffic holding up a McCain sign… waving and getting thumbs up from passing motorists.
Obama thugs, of course, were spitting and throwing stuff out the windows of their vehicles.
I stopped and offered the guy a few of my signs which say:
Obama: supported by thugs, anti-Americans, terrorists, and Illegal ACORN voters
McCain: supported by hard-working Americans
I could only stay a few minutes cause I had all three kids with me, and they kept trying to jump into traffic.
[Reply]
Steven Reply:
November 4th, 2008 at 1:47 am
I like that story.
You know, I was out “in the field” today, and the sense of enthusiasm for McCain is greater than it was for Bush in 2004. At least it is around here. You would never have seen that in 2004.
[Reply]