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Dr. Strangeweighting: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Polls

Wed, Sep 24, 2008 at 9:37 am Posted by Steven in Presidential Polling 1 Comment

Remember back in early September, when that USA Today poll showed John McCain opening up a 10-point lead against Barack Obama and all the liberals ran down the street naked screaming and crying “Oh, the humanity” like it was May 9, 1937?  They were dropping Biden, they were dropping Obama, they were threatening riots in the streets on the evening of November 4.

Normal people laughed and laughed because of their total meltdown.

This morning, ABC News and the Washington Post released a poll showing Barack Obama opening up a 9-point lead against John McCain.

The USA Today poll didn’t matter, and this ABC News / Washington Post poll doesn’t matter. The quick and dirty guide to poll reading is this: Never trust a poll with the name of a biased liberal news organization in the title.  Why would you?

The USA Today poll was based on the opinions of 823 voters.  The ABC News / Washington Post poll is based on the opinions of 780 voters.  In the last Presidential election, about 121,068,000 votes were cast.  I don’t care how good your sampling is 780 voters, will never accurately reflect the opinions of 121,068,000 voters.  Never.

Today’s poll was conducted by TNS of Horsham, PA.  Who?  I mean, no offense TNS of Horsham, PA, but who are you?  I’ve heard of Gallup.  I’ve heard of Zogby.  Ipsos, check.  Rasmussen, check.  TNS of Horsham, PA?

Looking at the poll’s tabulated results, their likely voter sample with leaners wound up 54% Democrat and 35% Republican.  Sorry, that’s just not accurate.  Remember how we’re a 50/50 country?  Their base self-identification among likely voters wound up at 38% Democrat, 26% Republican and 31% Independent.  Based on historical norms, this under identifies Republicans by about 10% even if you just look at the numbers from the beating Republicans took in the 2006 election. In November 2006, the absolute worst time to be a Republican since Watergate, 36% of actual voters self-identified as Republicans in exit polls.

There’s no need to melt down.  It’s a one or two point race.  There are four debates.




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One Response to “Dr. Strangeweighting: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Polls”

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  1. edit35 says:
    September 24, 2008 at 11:51 am

    Not sure what you’re doing blogging away on BucksRight, but you should be working for the McCain/Palin campaign as top consultant…… or strategy director, or something.

    At the very least, you should’ve been hired as a consultant by the Manion people, who seem to need something, someone, ANYthing to get some MoJo…….

    After all, Murphy may be the wimpiest, vacuous, most pandering, knee-jerk Obama-kissing liberal in Bucks County political history (never mind that he is a Philly boy and had to fudge his history to even be considered living in the 8th district) —-

    ….but without some viable strategy, Tom Manion will not capture the hearts and minds of enough voters.

    Like someone wrote in the Pittsburgh Tribune a few weeks ago, Manion should literally be camping out in Lower Bucks County the final six weeks of the campaign, with teams and teams of door-knockers and lunchtime media teams walking through the main thoroughfares with hard hitting campaign messages ….

    Murphy’s “Energy” plan: DO NOTHING — BUT COMPLAIN and BLAME..
    Manion and the Republicans WILL develop American resources

    Or something like that. Murphy’s vulnerabilities are endless.

    /rant of the day