Widely cited expert Congressional election watcher Charlie Cook has moved the PA-8 House seat currently occupied by Patrick “Patlosi” Murphy from the “Safe Democrat” column to the “Likely Democrat” column, acknowledging that the chances of Murphy holding onto the seat are decreasing as Bucks county recoils from the Pelosi / Reid / Obama agenda just like the rest of the nation.
And by “rest of the nation” I do mean, “including Massachusetts.”
Cook fills us in on his why he feels Li’l Pat just got a smidgen less safe, by way of Tony Phyrillas.
In bad years, parties find that tamping down problem districts is a lot like playing whack-a-mole. Democrats weren’t counting on having to spend much time thinking about this seat in 2010, but former one-term GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick’s bid makes this district a new concern for Democrats. The 2006 race between Murphy and Fitzpatrick was one of the closest in the country: Iraq War veteran Murphy unseated Fitzpatrick by less than a percentage point in this suburban Bucks County district. Now, Republican leaders have succeeded in convincing Fitzpatrick, who is apparently healthy after a bout with cancer, to make a comeback…Murphy is a solid fundraiser with $624,000 in the bank, while Fitzpatrick must start from scratch. But the current state of affairs for Democrats in Pennsylvania means this rematch should only become more competitive.
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